AI-Summary – News For Tomorrow
Despite a weak ADP report showing job losses, initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a resilient labor market. However, high continuing claims indicate difficulty in finding new jobs, hinting at a softening hiring environment. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a recent high, but overall, the labor market isn’t showing severe deterioration. Trump’s trade and immigration policies, coupled with AI adoption, contribute to a “no-hire, no-fire” dynamic, dampening hiring. While an immigration crackdown could tighten labor supply in some sectors, policy uncertainty is delaying hiring decisions, leaving the jobs outlook tilted downward.
News summary provided by Gemini AI.
Overall, the data indicate that initial claims remain low, underscoring a still-resilient labour market. However, the persistently high continuing claims suggest that unemployed workers are struggling to secure new positions, signalling a gradual softening in hiring. Overall, the data show no severe deterioration in labour market conditions, easing fears of a sharp slowdown after the weak ADP report, which showed a -32K drop in private payrolls in Nov-25 (Oct-25: +47K), the largest decline in over two and a half years. Still, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in Sep-25 from 4.3% in Aug-25, the highest since Oct-21.
Trump’s aggressive trade and immigration policies have created an environment in which firms are reluctant to both hire and lay off workers, resulting in what many describe as a ‘no-hire, no-fire’ dynamic. The growing use of AI is also dampening labour demand, especially for entry-level roles. Overall, the jobs outlook remains tilted to the downside, as broad tariffs risk lifting costs and slowing activity, potentially triggering layoffs.
MBSB, however, noted that an immigration crackdown could tighten labour supply in sectors like hospitality and construction, and heightened policy uncertainty is prompting businesses to delay hiring decisions.
