AI-Summary – News For Tomorrow
September’s jobs report showed a strong gain, but revisions to July and August data revealed 33,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. Job growth was concentrated in leisure and hospitality, healthcare, social assistance, and state/local government, while other sectors saw declines. Wage growth remained steady at 3.8% year-over-year. Despite September’s gains, economists suggest the labor market is cooling. The delayed report comes after a government shutdown, impacting data release. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady on interest rates at its December meeting, though real-time data still signals a cooling job market.
News summary provided by Gemini AI.
August’s job growth was revised from a gain of 22,000 to a loss of 4,000, and July’s growth was revised from a gain of 79,000 to 72,000. “With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported,” BLS said.
The bulk of the job growth came from a handful of sectors. Leisure and hospitality added 47,000 jobs, healthcare and social assistance together added about 57,000 jobs, and state and local governments added about 25,000 jobs.
Most other sectors were flat or saw declines. The federal government had a net loss of 3,000. Transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and professional and business services also had a decline in September.
Wage growth was steady; average hourly earnings rose 3.8% from a year ago, as they did in August. Earnings increased 0.2% over the month.
Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said what’s considered a “good jobs report” will need to continue evolving because “jobs gains are moderating, things are getting a little weaker, but also labor supply is getting weaker.”
The longest government shutdown in US history delayed the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report, originally scheduled for October 3.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday there won’t be an October jobs report, which would have been released at the start of November barring the shutdown. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said recently that payroll estimates for last month can still be calculated, but “we will never know what the unemployment rate was in October.”
Private data providers like ADP, Revelio Labs, and others were able to partially fill the gap for September and October hiring changes, but economists and market watchers have been eagerly awaiting the delayed official figures.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting is scheduled to be the last one of the year. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and October. CME FedWatch, which shows the chances of the Fed changing rates, indicated after the jobs report a roughly 65% chance that rates would be held steady, a slight tick down from before the release.
Stahle said he doesn’t think the Fed’s concern about the labor market’s performance will dissipate just because of the strong job growth in September. He said real-time data still indicate a cooling job market.
