AI-Summary – News For Tomorrow
The US House could swing Republican or Democrat in 2026 due to redistricting efforts. Republicans aim to gain seats by redrawing maps in states like Ohio, Missouri, and potentially Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and Florida. Utah is facing a court-ordered redraw potentially creating a competitive district. Democrats are considering redistricting in New York, Illinois, and Maryland. These efforts could significantly impact the balance of power in the House, but wave elections still influence control, and narrow House majorities make even a few gained seats crucial.
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The same American electorate could return either a Republican or a Democratic majority in the US House in the event of a close election in 2026 as the two parties race to redraw congressional maps to their advantage.
If everything goes their way in the known and potential redistricting efforts, it’s possible President Donald Trump’s party could pick up a dozen seats simply by carving up Democratic districts in red states.
But that assumes Democrats find no joy in their own efforts.
Here’s how the map is changing so far.
Ohio: As many as 3 possible new GOP-leaning seats. Ohio is required to redraw its already gerrymandered maps because of a quirk of state law. As that process begins, Republicans see an opportunity to carve out a few more Republican-leaning seats around Akron, Toledo and, maybe, Cincinnati.
Missouri: 1 new GOP-leaning seat. Republicans who control the state government passed a new map to carve up the Kansas City-area set held by longtime Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. It’s awaiting Gov. Mike Kehoe’s signature, but a signature-gathering campaign is underway in an attempt to block it.
Plus, Republicans are eyeing more. In Indiana, Gov. Mike Braun is considering a November special session to redraw congressional maps after a pressure campaign from the White House, including a visit from Vice President JD Vance.
The White House has similarly applied pressure on lawmakers from Kansas, where Democrats hold one seat; Nebraska, where outgoing GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s Omaha district will be a top target of Democrats; and New Hampshire, which has two seats held by Democrats, according to reports. In Florida, a committee has been formed to pursue the idea of a mid-decade redistricting. All of those efforts may not come to fruition, but Republicans are certainly looking across the map.
Utah: A court-mandated re-draw. A judge in Utah is requiring the legislature to redraw maps that ignored a nonpartisan redistricting commission and carved up a single Democratic seat around Salt Lake City among the state’s four congressional districts. The end result could be the return of a competitive district in Utah.
There are also nascent efforts to consider redistricting in New York, Illinois and Maryland. In New York, Democrats would have to find a way around the state constitution, which prohibits gerrymandering. In Illinois, congressional maps are already drawn to favor Democrats and there are only three Republican seats. There’s only one Republican seat in Maryland, and a previous effort to carve it up failed in the courts.
But it’s also true that with fewer and fewer competitive seats, the pendulum does not swing as far. Democrats need to pick up a net of three seats to gain control of the House and gain a foothold of power in Washington, DC, to stand up to Trump.
President Joe Biden’s Democrats only lost nine seats in 2022, compared with the 40 Republican seats Trump lost in 2018.
No amount of redistricting is likely to save the House for Republicans if a true wave against Trump should materialize, but in this world of historically narrow House majorities, five to 10 more friendly seats could certainly change the equation.
