Throughout the state, the number of localities with declining numbers also dropped, another sign infections are spreading.
“While early, national and global trends suggest concerns about winter case growth and schools reopening may be founded,” researchers wrote in Friday’s UVa report to explain the increase.
Each week the same warning appears in predictions: The document is only designed to show what could happen based on trends occurring now, but it’s not a true forecast into what will happen.
“Behavioral responses drive changes in current trends,” researchers caution.
The model predicts state infections will now peak around Nov. 22 at 8,394 weekly cases. But even with a large surge possible, hospital capacity isn’t expected to be exceeded in any region of Virginia through the end of the year.
Locally, Danville and Pittsylvania County may reach a peak of 250 per week on Dec. 6, the latest model shows.
The most recent data puts the percent positive rate in the local health district at 6.9%, a drop from about 10% in the first week of October. Generally speaking, health officials recommend the rate — the amount of positive virus results calculated against the number of overall tests administered — should remain below 5%. The commonwealth as a whole has achieved that goal and currently stands at 4.9%.