FROZEN 2 – In Walt Disney Animation Studiosâ âFrozen 2, Elsa, Anna, Kristoff, Olaf and Sven … [+]
Fresh off the presses, both Atom Tickets and Fandango are reporting that Frozen II sold more tickets in the first 24 hours of presales than any prior animated movie. The Jennifer Lee and Chris Buck-directed animated sequel, again starring Kristen Bell and Idina Menzel as Anna and Elsa, is positioned to nab a pretty huge opening weekend when it launches on November 22, with official prerelease tracking putting the Fri-Sun debut at over $100 million. That would be a record for a non-summer animated opening, although it’s not absurd to presume that the Fri-Sun gross could be closer to somewhere between Minions ($115 million in 2015) and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158 million in 2013). That latter is probably the best-case-scenario, but, I mean, this is Frozen II.
A much-anticipated movie scoring big in pre-sales can be a dangerous stat to trumpet. Yes, it is better for a movie to sell “more” tickets prior to release than “less” tickets prior to release, but there isn’t yet any real one-to-one comparison for massive pre-sales and massive opening weekends. The grim exception remains Solo: A Star Wars Story, which sold more tickets in its first 24 hours than Black Panther only to earn “just” $103 million over its Fri-Mon Memorial Day weekend. I am old enough to remember when Sex and the City: The Movie was breaking pre-sales records, and while that New Line flick’s $52 million debut was huge for that $60 million, R-rated comedy, I’m guessing many very big blockbusters wouldn’t be thrilled with a $52 million debut.
It is in Disney’s interest to downplay expectations, as to avoid the post-opening handwringing that greeted Toy Story 4 and its “mere” $120 million launch last June. The well-liked Pixar sequel still legged it to $430 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide, so the slightly lower-than-hoped opening was about as accurate a testament to its long term appeal as the mere $71 million debut of Shrek Forever After, which eventually earned $238 million domestic and $752 million worldwide, in 2010. The other pre-sale animated champs (for both Fandango and Atom) are Toy Story 4 (which opened with $120 million) and Incredibles 2 (which opened with a record-busting $183 million). Next for Fandango is Finding Dory and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (a $35 million opening last December, so, yeah, pre-sales aren’t everything).
As stated last week, presuming reviews are good, I have a hard time presuming that Frozen II won’t open at least as well, sans inflation and with or without 3-D bumps, as Minions ($115 million in 2015), Toy Story 4 ($120 million in 2019), Shrek the Third ($121 million in 2007), The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part I ($122 million in 2014), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part I ($125 million in 2010) or maybe even Finding Dory ($136 million in 2016). Yes, I’m using big animated openers and big YA fantasy franchise flicks that opened on this same pre-Thanksgiving weekend as relevant comparisons, as I’m guessing Disney wouldn’t have moved this away from Thanksgiving if it didn’t want us to at least consider both possibilities.
The other possibility is that Walt Disney’s Frozen II really does open closer to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II ($102 million in 2015) than The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($142 million in 2009. Yes, that would arguably be a disappointment, as Frozen earned $93 million over its Wed-Sun launch in November of 2013. That said, Frozen II’s second wide release weekend, not its first, would fall over the Thanksgiving holiday. Not only will it likely top the Thanksgiving weekend box office, but it stands to reason that the film could very well open “soft” and then just hold steady for the first 12 days or so of release. In other words, it could pull a Star Wars Episode One: The Phantom Menace-like performance.
While George Lucas’ first Star Wars prequel was expected to shatter every record in existence when it opened in May of 1999, it only succeeded in breaking some records. It earned $28 million on its first day, a Wednesday, which was a record, and it earned a then-record $105 million over its Wed-Sun launch. But it had to settle for the second-best Fri-Sun debut, with its $64 million frame coming in behind the $74 million Fri-Sun debut (of a $92 million Fri-Mon Memorial Day weekend launch) of Steven Spielberg’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park two years prior. The legend goes that the two filmmakers made bets about which movie would open higher, with Lucas actually betting against his own film. Spielberg had to pay for their shared family vacation that summer.
The media and pundits, also fueled by mixed reviews and a divisive reaction from fans, spent the week wondering “What went wrong?” The answer turned out to be a variation on Yogi Berra’s old quote about nobody going to that restaurant anymore because it was too crowded (something that would ironically befuddle Disney’s opening of “Galaxy’s Edge” earlier this summer). The film’s second weekend saw it fall just 25% for a $51 million Fri-Sun frame, a $66 million Fri-Mon weekend and a then-record 13-day total over $200 million. By weekend two, Star Wars was finally acting like Star Wars, dammit, and the picture eventually legged out to $431 million (third only to Titanic and Star Wars at the time) and $920 million worldwide (second only to Titanic).
Presuming Frozen II doesn’t open with Catching Fire-to-Incredibles 2 numbers, and it very well might, I wouldn’t be remotely surprised, again presuming it’s decent, to see it pull legs over the holiday like The Phantom Menace or (over Thanksgiving 2000) Jim Carrey’s The Grinch (a $55 million opening and then a $52 million second-weekend gross toward a $260 million domestic finish) and keep right on chilling at least until December 13. It won’t have the legs of Frozen, because it’ll have a bunch of kid flicks (Jumanji: The Next Level, Rise of Skywalker, Cats, Spies in Disguise, Little Women, etc.) to contend with after its 21st day of domestic release. However, the date change from Thanksgiving means it doesn’t have to break records on opening weekend to be a big hit.
