Breaking down the tiers of players available


Breaking down the tiers of players available

At 6 p.m. on Sunday, roughly 40 percent of the NBA will hit free agency. For the first time since the cap-spiked summer of 2016, teams will be able to spend in droves — with many of the hefty contracts from that offseason expiring.

This is a watershed summer for the league. For the first time since 2014-15, LeBron James’ first season back in Cleveland, there is no clear title favorite. Even after James signed, there was no clear favorite between the Cavaliers, Spurs and Thunder — who had title odds of 9/2, +400 and +700, respectively, per William Hill.

Before any free agency dominos have fallen, the Lakers lead the pack for next season at +300, according to William Hill. The Bucks check in next at +600 and the Clippers shortly follow at +750. In other words, Vegas has as good an idea of how things are going to look when the dust settles as you do.

And with a morass of players about to change teams, there’s a whole lot of dust about to be kicked up. The Post breaks down the top 30 impending free agents.

Tier 1: Transcendent superstars

Kawhi LeonardNBAE/Getty Images
  • Kevin Durant, SF
  • Kawhi Leonard, SF

With the caveat of Durant’s Achilles tendon tear, these two players are good enough to turn any team into a title contender. They also have this in common: Nobody has any idea what either one of them is doing.

Durant, who once seemed a lock to go to the Knicks, now seems split between the Knicks, Nets and staying with the Warriors. Leonard, who once seemed a lock to go to the Clippers, now might stay in Toronto or go to the Lakers.

Given that these two players have combined to win the past three Finals MVP awards, it isn’t a stretch to say their decisions will define this summer.

Tier 2: All-Star-level players

Kemba WalkerAP
  • Kyrie Irving, PG
  • Kemba Walker, PG
  • Jimmy Butler, SG/SF
  • Klay Thompson, SG

There’s comparatively little intrigue here. The Nets, at least as of now, look like heavy favorites to land Irving. The Celtics, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported, are frontrunners to sign Walker, replacing Irving in doing so. Friday, ESPN reported Thompson is expected to receive a $190 million max offer and remain with the Warriors.

Butler’s situation is the murkiest. The 76ers, per Wojnarowski, will try to re-sign him, and the Rockets will try to get him to initiate a sign-and-trade deal. The latter is a complicated proposition, at best — both in execution and how it would look on the court.

All of these players, however, are good enough to change a team’s expectation for the season.

Tier 3: Strong playoff contributors

D’Angelo RussellNBAE/Getty Images
  • Khris Middleton, SG/SF
  • D’Angelo Russell, PG
  • Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C
  • Nikola Vucevic, C
  • Tobias Harris, F
  • Al Horford, PF/C
  • Malcolm Brogdon, G

Everyone here likely will command a large contract this summer — possibly even a maximum salary — but it is unlikely any are a primary option on a playoff team.

That doesn’t mean they’re not worth the money. All provide needed depth and some — particularly Russell and Porzingis — come with high ceilings should they develop further. On the other end of the spectrum, it is easy to see money for someone like Horford, age 33, being dependent on the length of their contracts.

It should be noted: Every one of these players except Porzingis, who missed the 2018-19 season with injury, played for a playoff team last year. That’s not a coincidence, and it’s easy to see most of them on playoff teams again next season.

Porzingis, Russell and Brogdon are restricted free agents, meaning their teams can match any offer.

Tier 4: High ceiling, low floor

DeMarcus CousinsGetty Images
  • Harrison Barnes, F
  • DeAndre Jordan, C
  • Jabari Parker, PF
  • DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C

This is the riskiest group of free agency. Barnes opted out of a $25.1 million option for next year, which seems to imply he can get good money regardless. Parker and Jordan both have question marks — the former on health, the latter on age — but likely will try to command money in line with their potential ceiling over anything else. Cousins took a discount last summer to rehabilitate his value and might not want to do the same for the second straight season.

Cousins and Jordan have earned All-NBA nods in the past. Parker is a former No. 2 pick and has droves of talent; Barnes has been a starter on an NBA champion. All these guys have talent. Whether they play up to it is a different question altogether.

Tier 5: Rotation guys on playoff teams

Enes KanterGetty Images
  • Julius Randle, PF
  • Bojan Bogdanovic, SF
  • Brook Lopez, C
  • Danny Green, SG
  • JJ Redick, SG
  • Jonas Valanciunas, C
  • Rudy Gay, SF
  • Thaddeus Young, PF
  • Enes Kanter, C
  • Patrick Beverley, G
  • Al-Farouq Aminu, F
  • Terry Rozier, PG
  • Marcus Morris, F

Most of these guys will likely get either lots of money in the short term — see Redick’s one-year, $23 million contract from 2017 — or solid money over the longer term — like the four-year, $54 million deal Young just finished.

That’s the type of contract you would expect to see in this market for guys who can give you solid playoff minutes, and this group has, by and large, proven it can do that. Think of this tier as good, solid NBA players. That extends beyond what’s listed here — Terrence Ross, for example, is firmly in it — but listing it in its entirety would take space we don’t have.


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