Note: All non-first choice preferences polling topline data, unless otherwise stated, is among in-person caucusgoers who will determine 90% of the delegate count.
The good news for Joe Biden is that he is ahead at 24% of likely caucusgoers in our Iowa poll. The bad news starts with the fact that is worse than he polls nationally and generally weaker than he’s done in an earlier Iowa poll. Biden’s weaknesses don’t end there.
His very favorable rating is 34%, which is behind Warren. Among only those who can form an opinion of a given candidate, Biden trails Buttigieg and Harris on this score, too.
Biden’s voters are also less enthusiastic about voting for him than the average for other top candidates. Just 29% of Biden supporters say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting for him. For Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren — the candidates who round out the top 4 — it’s 43% on average.
Biden’s being harmed, too, by the uniqueness of the Iowa electorate. Like in other polls, Biden’s voters are less educated, more moderate and older.
He gets 29% among non-college educated and 20% among college educated caucusgoers. College educated voters make up 63% of caucusgoers. That’s 20 to 25 points higher than they made up of Democratic voters nationwide in the midterms.
Biden scores 17% among liberals and 31% among moderates and conservatives. The former is 56% caucusgoers. It was just 46% nationally in the midterms.
When you look at age, Biden earns 18% among caucusgoers under 45 and 30% among 45 years and older. With caucusgoers, those groups are 51% and 49% of the electorate. In the midterms, those under 45 were 40% or less of Democratic voters nationwide (depending on the source).
Oh and Biden’s best group nationally, African-Americans, are 3% of caucusgoers. They’re about 20% of Democratic voters nationally.